Watch Matt McLennan alongside Evercore ISI's Ed Hyman as they discuss what has changed in financial markets over the last year and what that means for the US and Global economies.
Equity markets have overcome their end-cycle anxiety to deliver impressive gains thus far in 2019. Given the magnitude of returns across stock markets globally, it is perhaps not surprising to see widespread reports of FOMO among investors.
"If you're a long-term investor, it matters less what's happening to the markets as a whole, and matters more what you can find bottom up. At the end of the day, we're not betting on being all into markets. We're selectively buying into markets around the world and I think that's the key distinction."
The move down in long-term interest rates in recent quarters has shed an ominous light. We’ve seen the yield curve invert in the United States, and there is evidence of softening in the underlying economy. The manufacturing sector has been weak globally, and momentum in the service sector has started to fade.
As has been the case through much of the post-crisis period, investors in the third quarter generally saw bad news as good news: Signs of a slowing economy were deemed benign because they were likely to provoke greater accommodation from the Fed.