The emergence of the novel coronavirus and the economic impact of efforts to contain its transmission led to a deep, sharp repricing of risk assets during the first quarter as liquidity concerns emerged across financial markets. The first-quarter market rout began as a typical flight to safety, with risk assets declining sharply while traditional safe havens rallied.
In the second quarter of 2020, the high yield market recouped much of the steep loss it had suffered in the first quarter of the year. The turning point for the market appeared to be the Federal Reserve’s March announcement that it would take aggressive measures to counteract the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.
We think the key issue investors need to consider is where we stand in the fight against Covid-19. Though financial markets are acting as if the pandemic’s impact has reached an inflection point, epidemiological data would suggest otherwise. Confirmed cases have exceeded 12 million worldwide and deaths more than 500,000, and these numbers continue to grow.
The price of gold was volatile in a momentous first quarter that saw both the emergence of a global health crisis and a significant correction in global equity markets, though the metal very much served its purpose as a potential hedge against extreme outcomes.
“Don’t fight the Fed.” This old adage has been proven right over many short time periods, second quarter 2020 the most recent among them.