For gold, the second quarter of 2021 was a tale of two markets. April and May saw weaker-than-expected economic growth, rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and both Russia and China, and mounting concerns about inflation.
The rebound in business confidence during the second quarter was striking, though much of the anticipated improvement in economic activity may already be priced into markets.
The reflation trade that emerged in late 2020 persistedthrough the first quarter of 2021. A relatively steadyvaccine rollout in the US combined with a steadfastlyaccommodative Federal Reserve and ongoing fiscal support had investors hopeful of strong economic growth in 2021, to the benefit of economically sensitive stocks.
Those who think it’s possible to predict the future of economies and markets with any sort of accuracy would have a hard time explaining 2020—a year dominated by a black swan event that descended u