Insights
Renewed easing by central banks worldwide was the defining move in financial markets during 2019, instigating a robust rally that left a number of major equity indexes at or near all-time highs by
Watch Matt McLennan alongside Evercore ISI's Ed Hyman as they discuss what has changed in financial markets over the last year and what that means for the US and Global economies.
Equity markets have overcome their end-cycle anxiety to deliver impressive gains thus far in 2019. Given the magnitude of returns across stock markets globally, it is perhaps not surprising to see widespread reports of FOMO among investors.
"If you're a long-term investor, it matters less what's happening to the markets as a whole, and matters more what you can find bottom up. At the end of the day, we're not betting on being all into markets. We're selectively buying into markets around the world and I think that's the key distinction."
The move down in long-term interest rates in recent quarters has shed an ominous light. We’ve seen the yield curve invert in the United States, and there is evidence of softening in the underlying economy. The manufacturing sector has been weak globally, and momentum in the service sector has started to fade.
As has been the case through much of the post-crisis period, investors in the third quarter generally saw bad news as good news: Signs of a slowing economy were deemed benign because they were likely to provoke greater accommodation from the Fed.
The gold price continued to climb in the third quarter of 2019, reaching a six-year high of $1,552/oz. in early September, as macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty continued to support the appeal of perceived safe-haven assets like gold.
The move down in long-term interest rates in recent quarters has shed an ominous light. We’ve seen the yield curve invert in the United States, and there is evidence of softening in the underlying economy. The manufacturing sector has been weak globally, and momentum in the service sector has started to fade.
The use of gold as a potential hedge against extreme market outcomes has long been a key tenet of First Eagle’s investment philosophy.
At First Eagle, we’ve long held that the United States does not have a monopoly on good companies. While we think most market participants would agree with this sentiment, asset allocation data suggest US investors in general continue to be significantly underexposed to international equities relative to their share of the global opportunity set.
As we assess the broader economic backdrop, we see plenty of worries. The US-China trade dispute remains tense, and there are signs that it has slowed global economic growth. Employment in the United States has been at a multi-decade high, but it may, potentially, have peaked.
“One of the things that's important that we do a little bit differently at First Eagle, is we don't define value just in purely statistical terms."
Though the current business cycle—the longest in US history—is showing signs of age, the potential timing of and impetus for its end remain uncertain.
Conventional wisdom dictates that everyone should save as much as they can, as early as they can, for as long as they can in order to live a dignified life in retirement.
The long-simmering trade dispute between the US and China has intensified in recent days.
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