In this paper, we explain gold’s power as a potential hedge, examine its history, consider the advantages and disadvantages of bullion, gold stocks and ETFs, and explore the differences between hedging and speculating.
While we don’t have a crystal ball at First Eagle, we do have a sense of current valuations and of the underlying vulnerabilities in the system. If the broader markets themselves are priced for low returns, investors who choose passive vehicles face the prospect of singularly disappointing returns over the long term.
In the past few years, gold and gold-mining stocks have been among the weakest performers in our Global Value and International Value strategies. Given the dramatic decline in some of these holdings, clients have questioned their presence in our portfolios. We believe that gold and gold-mining stocks continue to have a fundamental place in our Global Value and International Value strategies. We’ve organized this paper around the three major reasons for this conviction.
When risk is not defined in terms of permanent loss of capital, but rather in terms of deviation from a benchmark, the overall risk to investors increases.